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Will artificial intelligence, computers or automation replace some jobs in the future? From steam engines to computers. It seems like every few years, there is something out there that will steal our jobs. So far these advancements have started new industries and mostly created as many jobs as they have replaced. It’s quite plausible that one day all jobs will be done by robots and computers. If that happens, the cost of making most things could drop to zero. I feel that all the technology needed to make this happen, is starting to fall into place, and we are on the verge of an automation revolution. How does everything become free? Most of the costs in life come from paying humans for their labour in one way or another. Machinery and automation replaces jobs by reducing the number of hours of labour needed to complete a task, and have been replacing jobs for a long time. Just removing the cost of human labour and the cost of the buildings they work in, this would remove a large chunk of the cost of any product or service. Think of a product and how much of it’s cost is paying someone to mine or gather all the raw materials needed. People to refine or process the materials. To assemble the product. Pack and deliver it. Then all the people needed to move things from one place to another. Then the cost of all the buildings needed. People needed to service and supply these buildings. The people to maintain all this. This is where most of our ‘costs’ come from. It’s the cost of the humans, that put in the hours of labour needed, to keep the system going. Costs could also be slashed when we adopt the circular economy with a “reuse repair recycle” philosophy and start making things that are durable, repairable and re-usable. What happens if we automate all the jobs? It used to take almost the whole output of the world’s human labour just to keep us alive, fed, clothed, and to maintain a place to shelter. Throughout modern history we have increased productivity by using tools and machinery. Things like windmills, electric drills, pipes, elevators, computers, cranes and many more. These sort of things, have saved us humans many hours of labour. Each time needing fewer people to complete the basic tasks that sustain our lifestyles. Each year there are advancements in computers and machinery that makes automating more tasks cost effective, more productive and good enough to replace human jobs. If we carry on in this way, then ultimately we will get to a point where either we hit a wall and can’t increase automation any further. Or we end up automating everything. At the moment it seems we are automating more and more each year. There does not seem to be any signs of it slowing down or hitting any wall we can’t pass. If anything, it seems we are finding complex automation increasingly easy as technology advances. If you could make a physical product, where the first time a human is needed, will be when the customer first uses it at home. Then that physical product could be made for almost no cost. We could move from a price dominated economy to a resource based economy. Where it’s more about making sure we manage the resources at out disposal than making a profit. What do we need to achieve zero cost automation? There are a few things that help to make automating everything cheap enough, fast enough and productive enough to replace a human. First is renewable and abundant energy, in this day and age that means electricity. We already have ways to make clean cheap electricity with wind and solar. So it’s not a big leap to get to a point where most things can be powered by cheap abundant renewable energy, and whichever storage solution wins out. Motors play a big part in automation. From driving conveyor belts, to turning a drill bit. As soon as they are fast enough, durable enough and cheap enough then they have replaced physical labour. Over the last few decades motors have improved vastly, in things like speed, torque and efficiency. There seem fewer tasks they can’t do each year. Next up is sensors. Automation is limited if it can’t monitor the surroundings. From lasers that count units produced in a production line to cameras that provide a visual image of an object or machine. These really help you automate in an imperfect world, pick up potential problems and keep track of complex systems. As with motors, these have improved a lot in the last few decades especially in things like object recognition and environmental monitoring. Almost goes without saying that computers are quite handy too, and doubt I need to state how much they have improved over the last few decades. From processing the sensor’s data to controlling the motors. It’s the computers that makes automated systems all tick along nicely and deal with any problems. They also run the artificial intelligent systems that will control complex systems like self driving cars. So to get to full automation, we mostly just need something that is at least as good as a human, and ideally something much better. Things like optical circuits that can detect objects as well as a human, or robotic arms that can pick up and manipulate objects as well as your average worker. Once we have got the speed, accuracy and dexterity right then an automated system will get cheaper and become more and more common. As soon as a task can be done by automation for less than, a low paid worker costs. Then that job will become redundant and automated. How far along the fully automated path are we now? I think most people would be surprised by how much automation they encounter every day. Most of it seems so mundane that we take it for granted. From washing machines cleaning your clothes to elevators stopping at the right floor. There is already a lot of human labour and jobs that have been replaced. There is a saying which goes along the lines of: As soon as something is automated then people stop thinking of that being part of the automation system. Which means people think of automation being things like robots that mimic human task rather than machines that perform a part of a task. Like self service checkouts are helping automate the shopping experience but not many people would consider a scanner as automation. One of the big challenges in complex automation has been speed. Whether it’s reaction time when the unexpected happens. Or how fast a task can be completed compared to a human doing it. We currently have mostly automated some things like quarries and other resource gathering systems. Processing the resources has a huge amount of automation. Assembly and production of the finished product is again already fairly automated. Self driving to move things around is one of the major bottlenecks at the moment but developing fast. Creating new products used to be another but that seems to be changing now with the new GPT machines. As to how much more automation we need to get to full automation. We will have to wait and see. If everything is automated, how will the world work? “Work keeps at bay three great evils: boredom, vice, and need.” Voltaire, Candide Universal Basic Income is often proposed as a solution to the ‘need’ part. If most people don’t work then some sort of credit system seems likely. A credit system can make it so you don’t need to worry about basics like food, shelter and energy without having to work. An economist is likely to tell you this will not work in practice as it will be too expensive. Though they will be calculating this at today’s costs that include things like labour, building costs, and even profit. These may not really be that important in a fully automated world where all these costs will be negligible. It’s much more likely that we will need to find a way of stopping mass over consumption and manage resources. I quite like the idea that each person is given a cubic space allowance for living accommodation. Something like you have a minimum of 50 cubic meters per person, which will get you that size apartment somewhere. Partner up with someone and you can combine that allocation to a 100 cubic meter accommodation. Have a child then add another 50. So you are guaranteed a space to live and your basics covered. Obviously there could still be disparity in where your space is located and the facilities you have near you. Boredom could be one of the biggest problems. We will have to relearn how to fill our days without the need to work. The main thing will be finding a lifetime of things to do, that will fill up each and every day. We have more than enough movies, music, books and games to fill many lifetimes. Social gatherings, live entertainment, sporting achievements and the like can help fill this time. It seems likely that some people might still want to work. Whether it’s for artistic release, to kill time or because they like interacting with people. There is most likely to be some sort of extra credit system where you can give credits to others in exchange for work. So you could still follow a career if you wanted to, most likely without the stress and pressure our current society inflicts on so many. Or maybe we develop a different sort of wealth. Some cultures have something like ‘a purpose in life’ that you are encouraged to discover. We may need something like this to make life not feel pointless. Education will also need to change to adapt and teach whatever life skills we need to cope with a world without work. Considering the current education system seems designed to make good workers for business, then this is going to be a big change and take time. Getting the right mix of food, exercise, social and entertainment in a world without work could take time to get right. What could possibly go wrong? Things like the prices dropping to zero is dependant there being low resistance from the people loosing profits and power. Just because something cost nothing to make, that may not stop people charging you to use or have it. There seem to be an ever increasing number of companies that would rather make more money than drop the prices they charge. The corporate thinking at the moment is, “you have to make more money every year”. This of course is not sustainable as infinite growth is never sustainable. As these companies have more money, they then have more resources to pressure politicians into making favourable laws. So that’s the financial side of things but there is also the boredom threat. What do we all do with all that free time? Could social crimes like household violence, sexual assaults and gangs become a bigger problem? Or ‘police state’ levels of control to keep people in check? Then there is the transition from the current world to the new world. This seems very unlikely to go smoothly. Do those with jobs and resources help those put out of work by automation or do we leave them to fend for themselves? Do we return to the feudal times where a few mega rich people control everything and the rest survive of their handouts? I imagine the flash point is when a few people are still needed to work but most don’t. I can see the ones that have to work resenting the people that don’t have to work. Then there is the question of how much resources should people have access to? Enough to just about survive, or more than enough to live comfortably? How equal should we all be? Oh, and of course the robots could rise up against us. So to wrap up. Automation is nothing new. It’s a journey we have been on for a few thousand years. We do seem to be on the brink of technically being able to automate most tasks but will have to wait and see how long it will take to be practical. The idea here is to explore what would happen if we did managed to fully automate all jobs. How society would change, what the issues are, potential problems and possible solutions. So why listen to me? Well I have no agenda. I am willing to change my mind and try not to be bias. While being fairly well informed I’m only a keen outside observer. I don’t work for anyone in the automation world and have no interest in working or investing in anyone that does. I don’t even care about monetizing this project. The reason I’m doing this is because I have been intrigued but the subject of automation for a while. I love the idea of us humans never having to work again sometime in the future and want to start a debate on the subject. So I encourage you all to share your views on the topics I discuss and am happy to revisit subjects if and when there is questions that need answering. Future episodes will not be weekly, maybe not even monthly. They will drop as and when I feel they are right. Finally I’d like to add that everything on this channel is free to use as you like. That means you can take the text of any episode which I’ll publish on the website You are free to read it to camera in your own voice and put your version up online. Or translate it into another language. Can use as many extracts as you like. Mix it up and mash it up as much as you like. Even make money off it if you want. Just as long as you don’t try to stop anyone else doing the same to my original content. If you do your own version then it would be lovely if you let me know and give a link back to the original. Though you are under no obligation to do so.